As I look over the 2011 Daytona 500 starting line-up, there are really very few surprises with who’s up front – and who’s not. And, in spite of the two-by-two-by-two racing we are likely to see on Sunday, this year’s version of the Great American Race will certainly include much of the same excitement of past 500s – lots of 200 plus mph bump-drafting, a “BIG ONE” or two, and a breath taking, edge of your seat final 5 laps.

A few not so surprising developments include the fifth starting spot for Regan Smith. He’s strong in the restrictor plate game, and now that he’s with Childress racing, his #78 won’t be mired each week at the back of the field come the drop of the checkered flag.

Kasey Kahne also managed a solid qualifying race and will take Sunday’s Green Flag from the 11th starting spot. His new Red bull #4 Toyota, and an equally new abrasive, “Get the @$#&! out of my way” attitude could make fans stand and take notice in 2011.

One eyebrow-raiser going into this year’s 500 is the 23rd starting position for five-time champion Jimmie Johnson. The Lowe’s team has been struggling for speed since unloading, and Johnson’s luck at Daytona the past several years hasn’t been all that great. Watch for that trend to continue on Sunday.

So who will be celebrating in victory lane Sunday evening?

My money is on Mr. Red-Hot – Kurt Busch. With a new number (#22) and a new sponsor (Pennzoil/Shell), this may be the year the elder Busch breaks his restrictor plate winless streak and puts Roger Penske back in victory lane.